Is crypto bull run coming?

What a crypto bull run means and why it matters

A crypto bull run is best thought of as a sustained, multi-month period in which prices broadly rise and market activity shows persistent constructive trends, not a single large daily move or a brief spike. This distinction matters because short-term rallies can reverse quickly, while a multi-month bull run tends to coincide with deeper changes in market internals and macro liquidity.

For everyday investors, defining a bull run matters for allocation, risk sizing, and time horizon. Saying a bull run is underway can justify a different approach to position size and holding period, but that choice should be conditional and based on multiple signals rather than headlines or momentum alone. See our crypto category for related coverage.

Historically, sustained rallies have coincided with both stronger on-chain demand and looser macro liquidity, so a single positive signal rarely suffices to argue that a long bull phase is here. International reports note that monetary policy and broad risk-on flows have been closely linked to past cycles, so keep macro context in view when interpreting on-chain strength. See the Amberdata outlook 2026 outlook for one perspective on accumulation patterns.

In practical terms, treating a bull run as a combination of internal market indicators and external liquidity conditions helps you align any decision about the best coins to invest in with your personal finance goals and risk tolerance.

Key on-chain and exchange indicators to watch

Several measurable on-chain metrics have tended to lead rallies in past cycles. Watch rising active addresses, steady growth in realized market cap, and accumulation by long-term holders as signs that demand is building under the market rather than only speculative flips; these trends have historically preceded major rallies.

On-chain accumulation by long-term holders and rising active usage are practical signals because they reflect more sustained engagement with networks rather than short-term trading volumes, and they have been observed before prior large market moves in on-chain analyses. See this Glassnode insight on weekly on-chain flow.

On-chain accumulation by long-term holders and rising active usage are practical signals because they reflect more sustained engagement with networks rather than short-term trading volumes, and they have been observed before prior large market moves in on-chain analyses.

Exchange netflows and stablecoin supply growth often act as near-term liquidity triggers that can start or accelerate rallies, but these flows can also reverse quickly if withdrawals pick up or regulatory actions tighten liquidity, so treat them as short-term fuel rather than proof of a lasting trend. Chainalysis Crypto Market Report 2024-2025

Derivative signals such as funding rates, open interest, and options skew tend to amplify price moves. When funding rates spike positive and open interest climbs rapidly, leverage can push prices higher but also raise blow-off risk if sentiment reverses. That dynamic means derivatives data is useful for gauging risk appetite even if it is not a standalone buy signal. Messari overview of derivatives signals

In practice, track multiple charts together. For example, a rising long-term holder accumulation line while exchange balances fall suggests holders are taking crypto off exchanges, which can reduce immediate selling pressure. Coin-level variations matter: some protocols see accumulation earlier than others, so compare the same indicators across candidate coins before making choices. Glassnode on-chain market indicators – and see related CoinDesk coverage of long-term holder accumulation here.

Data accessibility matters. Many readers can access primary on-chain charts and exchange flows through public dashboards that show weekly changes in active addresses, realized cap, and stablecoin balances; using these sources reduces reliance on social media and secondhand summaries.

On-chain metrics that tend to lead rallies

Active addresses rising over several weeks suggests growing user engagement rather than isolated trading, and realized market cap increasing can signal that newer capital is being absorbed into the market rather than quickly flipping. These shifts have often come before larger price moves in past cycles.

Long-term holder accumulation is a separate lens: when on-chain analysis shows a sustained net increase in balances held by addresses that rarely sell, it indicates a base of holders who are less likely to sell quickly, and that pattern has been visible before past rallies. See additional analysis on long-term holders from CoinDesk here.

Exchange flows, stablecoin supply, and near-term liquidity signals

Stablecoin supply growth and net inflows to exchange accounts often provide the immediate liquidity needed for rallies to begin, because stablecoins are a common on-ramp for buyers. However, these flows can stop or reverse, and that reversal can abruptly remove the liquidity that was supporting a move. Historical market reports note this link between stablecoin inflows and rally acceleration. Coin Metrics state of the network

Watch whether exchange balances are rising or falling at the same time as stablecoin growth. Rising stablecoin supply with falling exchange balances can indicate buyers are holding off-exchange or allocating to decentralized venues, while rising exchange balances with stablecoin growth may presage near-term buying pressure.

Derivative signals and retail amplification

Funding rates, open interest, and options skew are useful to monitor because they reveal how much leverage and one-sided positioning the market has. Rapid increases in these metrics can amplify moves but also point to greater downside risk if the market re-prices expectations quickly.

Retail sentiment measures, such as search interest and small-wallet activity spikes, tend to amplify volatility during rallies and can be a warning sign that moves may be more fragile. Use these measures as complementary signals rather than primary evidence of a durable trend. Messari overview of derivatives signals

How macro liquidity and monetary policy affect timing

Macro liquidity and central bank policy are major determinants of when multi-month rallies can start or expand, because broader risk-on periods and rate cuts increase the pool of capital that can flow into risk assets, including crypto.

Reports from international financial institutions emphasize that monetary policy cycles and global risk appetite have been closely associated with the timing and magnitude of past crypto bull markets. In other words, on-chain strength can be necessary but not sufficient if macro conditions are tightening. IMF staff discussion note – and for price context see our Bitcoin price analysis.

If central banks move toward easing and risk-on flows pick up across equities and other risk assets, that environment tends to lift the odds of a broader, sustained rally in crypto; conversely, tight monetary conditions can cap rallies even when on-chain data looks constructive.

For everyday readers, this interaction means you should pair on-chain and exchange signals with a quick check of macro conditions. If policy is tightening and liquidity is constrained, consider delaying larger reallocations until the macro backdrop becomes more supportive.

Why rate cuts and risk-on asset flows matter

Rate cuts can increase the supply of investable capital and lower the discount rate for future returns, which in past cycles helped support higher valuations in risk assets. When that broader lift happens, crypto often sees stronger, more durable moves because more capital is willing to take risk.

That linkage does not mean crypto always moves in lockstep with stocks, but the timing of big rallies has often aligned with periods of easier monetary policy and broader risk-on flows in other markets. Central bank decisions remain a key context to watch. BIS report on crypto and the financial system

Using indicators to decide the best coins to invest in

Choosing which coins to consider during a constructive market phase should begin with objective criteria: on-chain accumulation rates, exchange liquidity, protocol fundamentals, and active ecosystem development. These criteria help separate tokens that move on speculation from those with deeper user or developer engagement.

Liquidity matters. Coins with deeper order books and more consistent exchange liquidity are easier to enter and exit without extreme price impact, which is particularly important in volatile rally periods. Stablecoin-driven liquidity tends to lift more liquid markets first, so expect highly liquid coins to lead moves initially. Chainalysis Crypto Market Report 2024-2025

Decision criteria: liquidity, fundamentals, and on-chain activity

Practical decision criteria include: a) rising long-term holder balances, b) healthy exchange liquidity and market depth, c) improving on-chain usage metrics, and d) protocol-level signs of adoption or development. Use these together rather than relying on a single metric.

When comparing coins, weigh liquidity and market cap. Smaller caps can outperform in rallies but generally carry more risk and lower liquidity; that trade-off should influence position sizing in your personal portfolio plan.

Risk management: position size, time horizon, and stop ideas

Size positions to match your overall personal finance plan and risk tolerance. For many readers, a small, clearly defined allocation within a diversified portfolio is more appropriate than a large concentrated bet during uncertain times.

Consider incremental entries and pre-defined exit rules. For example, scale into a position across multiple buys as signals improve, and set simple rules for when to reduce exposure if derivatives leverage spikes or if exchange inflows stall.

A practical checklist to combine signals before acting

Use a multi-signal checklist to increase confidence before acting. Combine on-chain accumulation, stablecoin inflows to exchanges, constructive macro backdrop, moderate derivatives leverage, and portfolio sizing controls into a single quick reference you review before making changes.

Below is a short, actionable checklist you can scan weekly. It is designed to reduce impulse moves and keep decisions evidence based.

Checklist items are simple to scan and can be tracked with basic charts or a spreadsheet. Verify primary sources rather than relying on social posts when possible. Coin Metrics state of the network

Step-by-step signal checklist

1) On-chain accumulation: multi-week rise in long-term holder balances for the coin or network.

2) Active usage: steady or rising active addresses over several weeks.

3) Exchange liquidity: meaningful order book depth on major exchanges.

4) Stablecoin inflows: net increase in stablecoin balances on exchanges or growing supply.

5) Macro backdrop: easing or stable monetary policy and risk-on flows in broader markets.

6) Derivatives posture: funding rates and open interest rising moderately rather than extreme leverage spikes.

7) Position rules: pre-set maximum allocation relative to total investable assets and rules for scaling out.

8) Source check: a final quick verification of primary charts before execution.

How to weight conflicting signals

When signals conflict, weight macro and liquidity considerations more heavily for timing, and weight on-chain accumulation and protocol fundamentals more for selection. For example, if on-chain accumulation is rising but macro policy is tightening, consider research and smaller, conditional allocations rather than large entries.

A simple rule is to require at least three constructive signals, including either a supportive macro signal or clear stablecoin inflows, before moving beyond a small exploratory allocation.

Common mistakes and pitfalls during rallies

One common error is chasing last-months top performers without checking liquidity or fundamentals. Rapid past performance can entice traders, but illiquid tokens can tumble quickly when sentiment shifts.

Another frequent mistake is ignoring derivatives risk. High positive funding rates and surging open interest can make rallies fragile; when leverage is concentrated, corrections can be swift and severe. Monitor these metrics to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a forced unwind. Messari overview of derivatives signals

Chasing short-term moves and FOMO

FOMO drives impulsive choices that often lead to poor timing. Pre-set allocation rules, incremental entries, and a checklist reduce emotional trading and keep choices aligned with overall financial goals.

Set clear allocation limits before entering a market and avoid increasing that allocation in the heat of a rally unless your checklist is still satisfied.

Misreading derivative signals and leverage

Funding rate spikes can persist for a while, but extreme skew and crowded positions increase the chance of rapid reversals. If skew becomes extreme, consider tightening stops or reducing position exposure rather than adding more risk.

Be mindful of fees and tax implications, which can eat into returns and complicate short-term trading strategies. Treat transaction costs and potential taxable events as part of your decision calculus.

Realistic example scenarios: how the checklist changes decisions

Scenario A, where on-chain accumulation is rising but macro conditions are neutral, calls for cautious scaling. If long-term holder balances and active addresses are increasing while exchange inflows are steady but macro liquidity is not clearly easing, a conservative approach is to increase research and add small staggered positions tied to further confirmation.

This approach recognizes the constructive on-chain trend while respecting that broader liquidity may not yet be sufficient to sustain a long bull phase; it balances curiosity with protection. Glassnode on-chain market indicators

Scenario B involves strong stablecoin inflows and a clear risk-on environment. If stablecoin supply is expanding and netflows to exchanges rise at the same time that central banks signal easing, conditions are more favorable for a larger, timed allocation. In such cases, prioritize coins with deeper liquidity and better protocol fundamentals because they are likelier to lead initial moves. Chainalysis Crypto Market Report 2024-2025

Scenario C is high derivatives leverage and rising retail euphoria. When funding rates and open interest spike while retail sentiment metrics surge, the risk of sharp reversals increases. The practical choice here is to tighten exposure, set stricter profit taking thresholds, and avoid adding to positions until leverage normalizes.

Across scenarios, the checklist helps you convert signals into non-prescriptive actions: research more, scale entries, or tighten risk controls rather than making absolute calls about future price direction. Historical patterns suggest that long-term holder accumulation and exchange flows often align with rallies, but timing depends on macro liquidity. Coin Metrics state of the network

Putting it together: a cautious action plan and next steps

Summarize the core checklist and commit to a simple monitoring routine: review on-chain accumulation, exchange netflows, stablecoin supply, and a quick macro check once per week. Update your allocation rules if multiple signals become constructive and document reasons for any changes.

Recommended next steps are straightforward: set a small, predefined allocation you are comfortable with, track the checklist weekly, and verify any actionable decision with primary charts from reputable data reports. When in doubt, prefer smaller, conditional allocations over large shifts in your personal finance plan. See our Bitcoin price analysis coverage for context on market timing considerations.

For deeper reading, consider the data providers and reports referenced in this article as starting points for primary source checks, and remember this guidance is educational and not personalized financial advice. Messari overview of derivatives signals

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.