Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Continues Trading Sideways As ETF Outflows Add To Market Pressure
Bitcoin (BTC) continued trading sideways as it retreated after registering a notable jump on Tuesday. The flagship cryptocurrency rose nearly 2% on Tuesday but retreated on Wednesday amid persistent volatility.
The price is down over 1% during the ongoing session, trading around $86,891 after dropping to a low of $86,174. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs registered significant outflows, extending losses for a second straight day. The investment products registered $357 million in outflows on Monday and $277 million on Tuesday, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading redemptions.
American Bitcoin Adds To Holdings
Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin (ABTC) added 54 BTC to its holdings during Monday’s sharp crash, taking its total stash to 5,098 BTC, worth around $450 million at current prices. The latest acquisition positions the company among the top 20 publicly traded Bitcoin treasury firms. American Bitcoin stated that it acquired its Bitcoin stash through targeted purchases and self-mining, including Bitcoin held in custody or under an agreement with Bitmain. The treasury firm also highlighted a 96.5% Bitcoin yield since its Nasdaq debut, along with 533 Satoshis per share. American Bitcoin shares fell 2.7% on Tuesday despite BTC’s modest gains.
US Unemployment At Four-Year High
US jobs data has revealed that unemployment hit a four-year high of 4.6% in November, up 0.2% from September. October data remains unavailable due to the government shutdown. According to the report, employers added 64,000 jobs in November, with the private sector accounting for most of the numbers. The overall report is mixed, with experts divided on the labor market’s trajectory and whether the Federal Reserve has room to continue cutting interest rates in 2026.
Experts believe rising unemployment and 64,000 in payroll gains make it difficult to gauge the direction of the job market. Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, stated,
This is not a release that is going to resolve current debates about the health of the labour market. But allied with other indicators such as jobless claims and job openings, the labour market is certainly not falling over.
Chuck Lieberman, strategist at Advisors Capital Management, called the data “messy.” Investors were hoping a weak jobs report could strengthen the argument for further rate cuts. However, the report paints a mixed picture, with government hiring declining, while the private sector continues hiring.
Bitcoin Could Hit New Highs In 2026: Bitwise
Bitwise and Grayscale have predicted Bitcoin will reclaim and surpass its previous all-time high, indicating that the flagship cryptocurrency could break its four-year cycle. The asset managers believe the move to a new all-time high will be powered by institutional capital and regulatory clarity. Bitcoin has historically adhered to a four-year cycle associated with its halving events, with three bullish years followed by a sharp correction. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and according to the traditional four-year cycle, 2026 is a bearish year.
However, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes the factors driving the four-year cycle have weakened considerably as new market and structural dynamics come to the forefront. Hougan stated in a note,
We believe the wave of institutional capital that began entering the space with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will accelerate in 2026, as platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch begin allocating.
Hougan expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high in 2026, breaking the four-year cycle as institutional capital enters the fray. According to Grayscale, this has already altered Bitcoin’s price action, highlighting that previous bull market gains exceeded 1,000% in a single year, while the current cycle’s year-over-year increase stands at 240% through March 2024. Grayscale attributes this to steady institutional inflows rather than retail momentum, adding that the probability of deep pullbacks has declined considerably.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the red during the ongoing session, down nearly 2% at $86,419. The flagship cryptocurrency has faced substantial selling pressure in recent sessions, dropping below $90,000 on Sunday and then to a low of $85,129 on Monday as selling pressure and volatility intensified. The price recovered on Tuesday, rising 1.66% to $87,854 before dropping back into bearish territory on Wednesday.
While Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum, its derivatives market is showing signs of stability, with strong support around $85,000 and resistance between $95,000 and $100,000. Market activity in Deribit-listed options reveals strong support emerging around $85,000 as traders offer insurance against price drops below this level. On the flip side, other traders are offering insurance against bullish moves past $95,000 and $100,000, creating strong resistance at these levels. Analysts believe volatility and price action could remain within this range. Wintermute’s Desk Strategist, Jasper De Maere, stated,
Strong put-selling support around 85k (then 80k/75k as secondary buffers), while call overwrites cap upside around 95k–100k. Vol is being harvested inside this band.
Put options are contracts that pay out if an asset’s value falls below a specified price on or before a pre-decided date. Traders selling $85,000 strike put indicate confidence BTC will not drop below this level in the short term. Meanwhile, Bitcoin holders are also selling call options against their long positions between $95,000 and $100,000, generating income in the form of premiums received for offering insurance against a bullish move. However, call sellers must deliver Bitcoin if the price crosses the specified levels. This could add selling pressure when prices near $100,000, making a breakout unlikely in the short term.
Bitcoin is also facing pressure as the yen carry trade unwinds, impacting global liquidity and risk assets. The yen carry trade is an investment strategy that involves borrowing funds from Japan at low interest rates and then investing in high-yield assets in other markets, generally US Treasuries. The trade’s viability is dependent on favorable interest rate differentials and a stable exchange rate between the yen and the US dollar. However, Japan has started raising interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve has announced rate cuts, making the trade less profitable.
This has prompted some investors to liquidate US assets to repay yen-denominated loans, leading to substantial capital outflow from the US market.
As Japanese rates rise, that trade flips. Investors are now being forced to sell their US assets to pay back their Yen loans.
Analysts state that Bitcoin tends to reflect changes in market liquidity early, and forced selling could lead to price volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) started the previous week in positive territory, rising 0.28% to $90,653. Buyers retained control on Tuesday as the price reached an intraday high of $94,640 before settling at $92,690, ultimately increasing 2.25%. However, it lost momentum on Wednesday, dropping 0.71% to $92,035. Selling pressure intensified on Thursday as BTC fell to an intraday low of $89,257. However, it rebounded from this level to reclaim $90,000 and settle at $92,542. Selling pressure returned on Friday as the price fell 2.45% to $90,278.
Source: TradingView
Price action remained bearish over the weekend as BTC registered a marginal decline on Saturday before dropping 2.31% on Sunday, slipping below $90,000 to $88,171. Selling pressure and volatility persisted on Monday as BTC fell 2.31% to $86,417. Despite the overwhelming selling pressure, BTC recovered on Tuesday, rising nearly 2% to $87,854. The flagship cryptocurrency is down over 1% during the ongoing session, trading around $86,610.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.