Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Posts First Ever Post-Halving Red Year, Raises Questions About Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market have registered notable gains over the past 24 hours as traders returned post the Christmas and New Year holidays, and risk appetite stabilized.
The flagship cryptocurrency is up nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, and is on the verge of reclaiming $89,000. BTC could retest the $90,000 mark if momentum persists. Meanwhile, the crypto market cap is up 1.62% at $3.01 trillion.
However, BTC closed 2025 with an annual loss of around 6%, recording the first-ever red year after a halving event. The loss breaks the ever-present four-year cycle that defined previous bull markets (2013, 2017, and 2021). The price is down nearly 30% from its October peak as the flagship cryptocurrency reinvents its price cycle, with macro liquidity, institutional capital, and ETFs dictating price action.
Crypto Users In The UK Must Share Account Details With Tax Authorities
Crypto traders in the UK are now mandated to share their account details with tax authorities or face steep penalties. The move is designed to ensure crypto users pay the relevant taxes on buying and selling cryptocurrencies, including capital gains tax. Authorities will begin collecting information on cryptocurrency exchange users as they look to collect millions in unpaid taxes. The UK’s financial regulator is also stepping up efforts to stop insider trading and continues its consultations on stringent regulations for the crypto industry in the UK.
Dawn Register, a tax dispute resolution partner at accountancy firm BDO, stated,
Investors who bought when the value was lower and sold when it was higher are in line to pay taxes, but authorities have historically struggled to collect it. HMRC has been concerned for some time about high levels of non-compliance among crypto investors.
According to the authorities, the new rules will make it difficult for crypto investors to hide untaxed gains and give tax officials significantly more information about crypto transactions.
Bitcoin (BTC) May Have Been In A Bear Market Since Early November: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market for two months, according to metrics like the one-year moving average. According to Moreno, most of the metrics he uses for the Bull Score Index turned bearish in November and have yet to recover. The Bull Score Index measures market conditions using indicators like investor profitability, network activity, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity. Moreno stated,
For me, the last confirmation is a technical indicator, which is the price going below its one-year moving average, that’s the technical indicator that I would say confirms this.
Moreno also predicted that BTC could bottom around the $56,000 to $60,000 zone, based on the asset’s realized price and past performances.
Historically, what happened in previous bear markets, you see the price coming down to what is called the realized price, which is basically the average price at which the holders of Bitcoin purchased their Bitcoin. It deviates a lot to the upside in the bull market, and then when there’s a bear market, that should be the, I would say maybe the base expectation for a bottom for a price bottom during a bear market.
Tether Announces 8,888 BTC Purchase
Tether announced it purchased 8,888 BTC on New Year’s Eve, taking its disclosed Bitcoin holdings past 96,000 BTC. The purchase makes Tether the fifth-largest Bitcoin holder, with the company’s address behind only Binance, Robinhood, and Bitfinex. Tether also now ranks second among privately held corporate Bitcoin treasuries. The acquisition is part of Tether’s quarterly Bitcoin buys. The stablecoin issuer commits 15% of its earnings to Bitcoin every three months. The latest 8,888 BTC purchase is worth around $780 million.
Tether also purchased 26 tons of gold in Q3, 2025, taking its total gold holdings to 116 tons, placing it among the world’s top 30 gold holders.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market have registered a substantial increase over the past 24 hours as markets resume in the new year. The flagship cryptocurrency has reclaimed $89,000 and is trading around $89,600. BTC closed 2025 over 6% lower and is trading around 30% below its October peak. Market activity and spot trading volumes have recovered after dropping over 40% the previous day.
However, market sentiment remains cautious with Bitcoin options with a notional value of $1.5 billion set to expire at 8:00 a.m. UTC on Jan 2. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.48, while the maximum pain level sits at $88,000. Options allow traders to reserve the right to buy or sell Bitcoin at a particular price point before a given date.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno believes the market bottom in 2026 is likely to be between $56,000 and $60,000. According to Moreno, a drop to $56,000 represents a 55% drawdown from Bitcoin’s all-time high. The head of research at CryptoQuant believes that previous drawdowns were significantly larger, and a 55% drawdown could be viewed as a positive.
If you want to see it positively, from the all-time high, the drawdown is really not as high as we have had in previous bear markets when we have had drawdowns of 70%, 80%. This will be just like a 55% from the all-time high.
Moreno believes that the bear market is more stable than previous ones because there have been no high-profile collapses or downturns. The 2022 bear market saw the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, followed by the Celsius Network and FTX, sending shockwaves through the crypto ecosystem. The relative stability can be attributed to institutional investors accumulating cryptocurrency, a bigger pool of traders and investors, and more reliable companies operating within the crypto ecosystem. Moreno concluded
Talking about demand again, there are other types of players now that buy more periodically. In previous bear markets, the demand was basically, you know, contracting. I would say that structurally, we now have more institutional or ETFs that don’t sell, and also there’s some buying there.
BTC ended the previous weekend at $88,639, registering a marginal increase. The price reached an intraday high of $90,541 on Monday but lost momentum and settled at $88,556. Selling pressure intensified on Tuesday as BTC fell 1.27% to $87,429. Despite the selling pressure, the price recovered on Wednesday, rising 0.21% to $87,609. However, selling pressure returned on Thursday as BTC fell 0.50% to $87,171.
Source: TradingView
BTC reached an intraday high of $89,496 on Friday but failed to sustain momentum and settled at $87,296. Price action remained positive over the weekend, with BTC rising 0.59% on Saturday and 0.08% on Sunday to $87,877. The price reached an intraday high of $90,325 on Monday. However, selling pressure forced BTC to retreat below $90,000 and settle at $87,110. The price recovered on Tuesday, rising 1.48% to $88,397. However, selling pressure returned on Wednesday as BTC fell 1.02% to $87,497. The price recovered on Thursday, rising 1.42% to reclaim $88,000 and settle at $88,738. BTC is up 1% during the ongoing session, trading around $89,442.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.